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Market TrendsReal Estate Market Stats And Information September 3, 2022

Why Experts Say the Housing Market Won’t Crash

Why Experts Say the Housing Market Won’t Crash [INFOGRAPHIC] | MyKCM

Some Highlights

  • Many people remember the housing crash in 2008, but experts say today’s market is fundamentally different in many ways.
  • First, there isn’t an oversupply of homes for sale today. Plus, lending standards are much tighter, and homeowners have record levels of equity. That means signs say there won’t be a wave of foreclosures like the last time.
  • If you have questions about the housing market, let’s connect.
Buyer Tips & StrategyReal Estate Market Stats And Information September 3, 2022

Why Today’s Housing Inventory Proves the Market Isn’t Headed for a Crash

Whether or not you owned a home in 2008, you likely remember the housing crash that took place back then. And news about an economic slowdown happening today may bring all those concerns back to the surface. While those feelings are understandable, data can help reassure you the situation today is nothing like it was in 2008.

One of the key reasons why the market won’t crash this time is the current undersupply of inventory. Housing supply comes from three key places:

  • Current homeowners putting their homes up for sale
  • Newly built homes coming onto the market
  • Distressed properties (short sales or foreclosures)

For the market to crash, you’d have to make a case for an oversupply of inventory headed to the market, and the numbers just don’t support that. So, here’s a deeper look at where inventory is coming from today to help prove why the housing market isn’t headed for a crash.

Current Homeowners Putting Their Homes Up for Sale

Even though housing supply is increasing this year, there’s still a limited number of existing homes available. The graph below helps illustrate this point. Based on the latest weekly data, inventory is up 27.8% compared to the same week last year (shown in blue). But compared to the same week in 2019 (shown in the larger red bar), it’s still down by 42.6%.

Why Today’s Housing Inventory Proves the Market Isn’t Headed for a Crash | MyKCM

So, what does this mean? Inventory is still historically low. There simply aren’t enough homes on the market to cause prices to crash. There would need to be a flood of people getting ready to sell their houses in order to tip the scales toward a buyers’ market. And that level of activity simply isn’t there.

Newly Built Homes Coming onto the Market

There’s also a lot of talk about what’s happening with newly built homes today, and that may make you wonder if we’re overbuilding. But home builders are actually slowing down their production right now. Ali Wolf, Chief Economist at Zonda, notes:

“It has become a very competitive market for builders where they are trying to offload any standing inventory.”

To avoid repeating the overbuilding that happened leading up to the housing crisis, builders are reacting to higher mortgage rates and softening buyer demand by slowing down their work. It’s a sign they’re being intentional about not overbuilding homes like they did during the bubble.

And according to the latest data from the U.S. Census, at today’s current pace, we’re headed to build a seasonally adjusted annual rate of about 1.4 million homes this year. While this will add more inventory to the market, it’s not on pace to create an oversupply because builders today are more cautious than the last time when they built more homes than the market could absorb.

Distressed Properties (Short Sales or Foreclosures)

The last place inventory can come from is distressed properties, including short sales and foreclosures. Back in the housing crisis, there was a flood of foreclosures due to lending standards that allowed many people to secure a home loan they couldn’t truly afford. Today, lending standards are much tighter, resulting in more qualified buyers and far fewer foreclosures. The graph below uses data from ATTOM Data Solutions on properties with foreclosure filings to help paint the picture of how things have changed since the crash:

Why Today’s Housing Inventory Proves the Market Isn’t Headed for a Crash | MyKCM

This graph shows how in the time around the housing crash there were over one million foreclosure filings per year. As lending standards tightened since then, the activity started to decline. And in 2020 and 2021, the forbearance program was a further aid to help prevent a repeat of the wave of foreclosures we saw back around 2008.

That program was a game changer, giving homeowners options for things like loan deferrals and modifications they didn’t have before. And data on the success of that program shows four out of every five homeowners coming out of forbearance are either paid in full or have worked out a repayment plan to avoid foreclosure. These are a few of the biggest reasons there won’t be a wave of foreclosures coming to the market.

Bottom Line

Although housing supply is growing this year, the market certainly isn’t anywhere near the inventory levels that would cause prices to drop significantly. That’s why inventory tells us the housing market won’t crash.

1st Time Home BuyerBuyer Tips & StrategyMortgage Tips and Strategies September 3, 2022

Why You May Want To Start Your Home Search Today

Why You May Want To Start Your Home Search Today | MyKCM

If you’re thinking about buying a home, you likely have a lot of factors on your mind. You’re weighing your own needs against higher mortgage rates, today’s home prices, and more to try to decide if you want to jump into the market. While some buyers may wait things out, there’s a reason serious buyers are making moves right now, and that’s the growing number of homes for sale.

So far this year, housing inventory has been increasing and that’s making the prospect of finding your dream home less difficult. While there are always reasons you could delay making a big decision, there are also always reasons to consider moving forward. And having a growing number of options for your home search may be exactly what you needed to feel more confident in making a move.

What’s Causing Housing Inventory To Grow?

As new data comes out, we’re getting an updated picture of why housing supply is increasing so much this year. As Bill McBride, Author of Calculated Riskexplains:

We are seeing a significant change in inventory, but no pickup in new listings. Most of the increase in inventory so far has been due to softer demand – likely because of higher mortgage rates.”

Basically, the inventory growth is primarily from homes staying on the market a bit longer (known as active listings). And that’s happening because higher mortgage rates and home prices have helped moderate the peak frenzy of buyer demand.

The graph below uses data from realtor.com to show how much active listings have risen over the past five months as a result (shown in green):

Why You May Want To Start Your Home Search Today | MyKCM

Why This Growth Is Good News for You

Regardless of the source, the increase in available housing supply is good for buyers. More housing supply actively for sale means you have more options as your search for your next home. A recent article from realtor.com explains just how significant the inventory growth has been and why it’s good news for your plans to buy:

“Nationally, the inventory of homes actively for sale on a typical day in July increased by 30.7% over the past year, the largest increase in inventory in the data history and higher than last month’s growth rate of 18.7% which was itself record-breaking. This amounted to 176,000 more homes actively for sale on a typical day in July compared to the previous year and more choice for buyers who are still looking for a new home.

The growth this year is certainly good news for you, especially if you’ve had trouble finding a home that meets your needs. If you start your search today, those additional options should make it less difficult to find a home than it would have been over the past two years.

Bottom Line

If you’re ready to jump into the market and take advantage of the increasing supply of homes for sale, let’s connect today. The opportunity is knocking, will you answer?

Buyer Tips & Strategy September 3, 2022

What’s Actually Happening with Home Prices Today?

What’s Actually Happening with Home Prices Today? | MyKCM

One of the biggest questions people are asking right now is: what’s happening with home prices? There are headlines about ongoing price appreciation, but at the same time, some sellers are reducing the price of their homes. That can feel confusing and makes it more difficult to get a clear picture.

Part of the challenge is that it can be hard to understand what experts are saying when the words they use sound similar. Let’s break down the differences among those terms to help clarify what’s actually happening today.

  • Appreciation is when home prices increase.
  • Depreciation is when home prices decrease.
  • Deceleration is when home prices continue to appreciate, but at a slower or more moderate pace.

Experts agree that, nationally, what we’re seeing today is deceleration. That means home prices are appreciating, just not at the record-breaking pace they have over the past year. In 2021, data from CoreLogic tells us home prices appreciated by an average of 15% nationwide. And earlier this year, that appreciation was upward of 20%. This year, experts forecast home prices will appreciate at a decelerated pace of around 10 to 11%, on average.

The graph below uses the latest data from CoreLogic to help tell the story of how home prices are decelerating, but not depreciating so far this year.

What’s Actually Happening with Home Prices Today? | MyKCM

As the green bars show, home prices appreciated between 19-20% year-over-year from January to March. But over the last few months, the pace of that appreciation has decelerated to 18%. This means price growth is still climbing compared to last year but at a slower rate.

As the Monthly Mortgage Monitor from Black Knight explains:

“Annual home price growth dropped by nearly two percentage points . . . – the greatest single-month slowdown on record since at least the early 1970s. . . While June’s slowdown was record-breaking, home price growth would need to decelerate at this pace for six more months to drive annual appreciation back to 5%, a rate more in line with long-run averages.”

Basically, this means, while moderating, home prices are still far above the norm, and we’d have to see a lot more deceleration to even fall in line with more typical rates of home price growth. That’s still not home price depreciation.

The big takeaway is home prices haven’t fallen or depreciated nationwide, they’re just decelerating or moderating. While some unique and overheated markets may see declines, nationally, home prices are forecast to appreciate. And when we look at the country as a whole, none of the experts project home prices will net depreciate or fall. They’re all projecting ongoing appreciation.

Bottom Line

If you have questions about what’s happening with home prices in our local area, let’s connect.

Market TrendsReal Estate Market Stats And Information September 3, 2022

What Would a Recession Mean for the Housing Market?

What Would a Recession Mean for the Housing Market? | MyKCM

According to a recent survey from the Wall Street Journal, the percentage of economists who believe we’ll see a recession in the next 12 months is growing. When surveyed in July 2021, only 12% of economists consulted thought there’d be a recession by now. But this July, when polled, 49% believe we will see a recession in the coming 12 months.

And as more recession talk fills the air, one concern many people have is: should I delay my homeownership plans if there’s a recession?

Here’s a look at historical data to show what happened in real estate during previous recessions to help prove why you shouldn’t be afraid of what a recession would mean for the housing market today.

A Recession Doesn’t Mean Falling Home Prices

To show that home prices don’t fall every time there’s a recession, it helps to turn to historical data. As the graph below illustrates, looking at the recessions going all the way back to 1980, home prices appreciated in four of the last six recessions. So, historically, when the economy slows down, it doesn’t mean home values will fall.

What Would a Recession Mean for the Housing Market? | MyKCM

Most people remember the housing crisis in 2008 (the larger of the two red bars in the graph above) and think another recession would repeat what happened then. But this housing market isn’t about to crash. The fundamentals are very different today than they were in 2008. So, don’t assume we’re heading down the same path.

A Recession Means Falling Mortgage Rates

Research also helps paint the picture of how a recession could impact the cost of financing a home. As the chart below shows, historically, each time the economy slowed down, mortgage rates decreased.

What Would a Recession Mean for the Housing Market? | MyKCM

Fortune explains that mortgage rates typically fall during an economic slowdown:

Over the past five recessions, mortgage rates have fallen an average of 1.8 percentage points from the peak seen during the recession to the trough. And in many cases, they continued to fall after the fact as it takes some time to turn things around even when the recession is technically over.”

And while history doesn’t always repeat itself, we can learn from and find comfort in the historical data.

Bottom Line

There’s no doubt everyone remembers what happened in the housing market in 2008. But you don’t need to fear the word recession if you’re planning to buy or sell a home. According to historical data, in most recessions, home price gains have stayed strong, and mortgage rates have declined.

If you’re thinking about buying or selling a home, let’s connect so you have expert advice on what’s happening in the housing market and what that means for your homeownership goals.

Commercial September 22, 2021

California Issues Guidelines for More Pandemic-Related Retail Openings

Rules Also Cover Manufacturing, Logistics and Other ‘Low Risk’ Locations Serving Stores

California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced guidelines allowing low-risk retail and industrial facilities to reopen starting Friday. (Gage Skidmore/Flickr)California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced guidelines allowing low-risk retail and industrial facilities to reopen starting Friday. (Gage Skidmore/Flickr)

California officials issued second-stage guidelines intended to put more retail, logistics and manufacturing companies on a path to post-coronavirus pandemic normalcy starting Friday, allowing them to reopen with necessary site modifications and precautions.

Guidelines announced by Gov. Gavin Newsom, and posted on the state’s pandemic response website, are similar to those issued earlier for businesses that were deemed essential in the state’s first phase of response to the virus, such as grocery stores, drugstores, banks and gas stations.

Those businesses are required to provide the high levels of sanitation, social distancing and other protocols to try to prevent the spread of the virus. If they follow the same standards, more businesses deemed “low risk” for virus transmission can open for business Friday, including retailers selling clothing, sporting goods, toys, books, music and flowers. The same state standards would generally also apply to manufacturing, warehouse and other logistics businesses serving retail customers that could be eligible to begin to reopen.

The new guidelines are the first in a series that are scheduled to be issued in coming weeks to help the 70% of businesses in California’s economy that are still reeling from stay-at-home orders issued by the state in mid-March. Newsom said practices will be subject to adjustment over the course of a total of four phases of reopenings that could play out over the course of several months.

“This is not etched in stone,” Newsom said of the latest guidelines. “We want to continue to work with people across sectors and address unintended and not just intended consequences of these meaningful modifications of the stay-at-home order.”

Since many retailers are small businesses, owners will be left to decide their own opening timelines based on the extent to which they are able to invest in the personnel and other expenses required to enforce social distancing, hygiene and other elements already being carried out by essential businesses such as supermarkets.

For instance, the state’s new retail guidelines call for businesses that open to provide temperature or symptom screenings for all workers at the beginning of their shifts and for any work-related personnel entering the facility. Protective gear should be supplied by the business to cashiers, baggers and other workers with “regular and repeated interaction with customers.”

The guidelines encourage the use of pickup and delivery services like those already being used by many stores and restaurants to minimize in-store contact and maintain social distancing. The rules acknowledge that may not be an option for all types of retailers, because of the ways in which people browse and shop depending on the product.

The retail guidelines call for closing in-store bars, bulk-bin options and public seating areas, and also for discontinuing product sampling.

Slow Recovery

While many retailers may be legally able to open their doors, some may still wait to do so, according to brokers. The restrictions may still pose logistical and financial challenges that could not end up being worth the effort.

“For clothing stores or shoe stores or others where there is a need to try things on and get the right sizing or fit, there isn’t any advantage to have people pick up curbside,” Mike Moser, partner in San Diego-based brokerage firm Retail lnsite, told CoStar News.

“And for shops where people browse through and purchase, the thought that these retailers are going to be able to do any business with a curbside pickup isn’t a solution that helps nor does it make that much sense,” Moser said.

Under the state guidelines, retailers will be able to operate at no more than 50% of normal capacity, and are advised to be “prepared to queue customers outside while still maintaining physical distance, including the use of visual cues.” In grocery stores, for instance, those cues have included floor markings intended to keep customers six feet apart in checkout lines.

Moser said small retailers want to open for business in a safe manner, but many may decide to wait because those modifications will not pay off when store traffic is lingering between 25% and 50% of normal capacity. Operators have staffing, inventory replenishment and other costs to consider in addition to the coronavirus-related modifications.

Newsom said another set of openings for the current second phase is being worked out, and details are expected to be announced in coming weeks for modified on-site restaurant dining, as well as the operating of outdoor museums, car washes and other low-risk businesses.

A return to more crowded settings such as office buildings, gyms and bars is not likely to occur until the third phase in California, and full operating of most types of businesses and public spaces won’t happen until the fourth phase. Newsom said the state is currently allowing counties to proceed faster with openings than the state if they can certify progress in areas such as infection and death declines, and increases in testing for the virus.

Officials of some hard-hit cities, including San Francisco and Los Angeles, have already said they will be proceeding slower than California as a whole when it comes to current and future business openings.

The Commerce Department reported that nationwide retail sales dropped 8.7% from a year ago in March, the sharpest plunge on record, with apparel store sales down 50% and restaurants and bars dropping 26%,

April U.S. retail figures are not yet available but are likely to show steeper declines, reflecting a full month of retail closings compared with March’s half month.